Iran Nuclear Talks have been extended to Nov. 24th. In my assessment of the situation, this decision means that Iran will have no further difficulty obtaining nuclear weapons. As I’ve detailed in past posts, Iran likely has a secret uranium enrichment facility. That explains why they would stop enriching uranium beyond 5%, and agree to various restrictions imposed by the West. They are simply buying time while their secret facility produces weapon-grade uranium.
A “breakout” is a rush to make weapon grade uranium in sufficient quantity for one or more nuclear bombs. A “covert breakout” (or sneakout) is a secret breakout. ISIS* — the Washington D.C. think tank called Institute for Science and International Security — has repeatedly warned about this possibility. Currently, ISIS is warning that Iran still has the capability to make weapon-grade uranium using their current massive number of known centrifuges: 18,000 first-gen centrifuges plus 1,000 second-gen centrifuges. They estimate that Iran could breakout in only 2 months using its current cache of low-grade uranium.
If Iran did attempt a non-covert breakout, it would be detected by the IAEA inspections, and a military strike against those facilities would be likely. The more worrying scenario is that Iran may “sneakout” by making weapon-grade uranium in a secret facility. Once Iran has at least a few nukes, it can begin an open breakout with its known facilities and known stockpile of uranium. The threat of nuclear retaliation would make a military strike on Iran very unlikely. Iran would quickly end up with a dozen or more nuclear bombs.
And that is, I believe, Iran’s current plan. They have accepted severe restrictions on their nuclear program in order to buy time for a covert breakout. Once they have nukes, they will announce it to the world and begin a rush to make many more nukes with their non-covert facilities. Based on information from the IAEA and ISIS, I estimate that Iran will complete its sneakout this calendar year. You should be worried.
All this lines up well with my eschatology. I believe that the tribulation begins within the next 12 to 48 months. The early events that I expect are as follows (not necessarily in chronological order).
* Iran announces that it has nuclear bombs
* Iran threatens nuclear retaliation if any nation attacks its nuclear facilities
* Iran openly makes more nukes
* Pope Francis initiates the great apostasy, unwittingly, by his decisions on doctrine and discipline
* Pope Francis teaches that non-Catholic Christians can be saved without converting
* In reaction to complaints from conservatives, he next teaches that non-Christian believers and even non-believers can be saved without converting
* Pope Francis teaches that women can be ordained as deacons in the Catholic Church
* Pope Francis increases the number of married priests in the Latin Rite
* Many conservative Catholics declare (incorrectly) that Pope Francis has fallen into heresy; in their pride, they separate from the one true Church.
* The decline of morals in secular society continues
* Same-sex marriage is (unfortunately) approved in more States and at the Federal level in the U.S.
* The push to declare “free contraception” a right continues
* Persecution of Christians who in good conscience reject these societal changes increases
* Economic problems worsen, including rising food prices
* Once the tribulation begins, there will be runs on supermarkets and other food distribution problems
* A breakdown in law and order begins
The tribulation itself includes many severe hardships for the Church and the world. See my eschatology books for the details. See also my booklet on radiation levels and effects.
* In past posts I’ve repeatedly referred to this think tank by their acronym, ISIS. It’s unfortunate that there is also an extremist Muslim group in Iraq which is called “ISIS” in news stories. I’ll be referring to that group as ISIL, another common acronym for the group.