The Supreme Court of the United States will hear 4 same-sex marriage cases this spring, and probably issue a decision by summer 2015.
my earlier post: How the Supreme Court Justices will vote on same-sex marriage
Of the 9 SCOTUS Justices, two have officiated at gay marriages: Ginsburg and Kagan. They will vote For.
Kennedy voted favorably toward gays in 1996, 2003 and 2013 cases involving anti-gay discrimination, sodomy laws and marriage rights. He will vote For.
Breyer is one of the most liberal judges on the Court. In 2003, he sided with Ginsburg and Kennedy to strike down a Texas law against same-gender sexual acts.
So that’s 4 votes for gay marriage out of 9.
Sotomayor voted to strike down DOMA (defense of marriage act). She is considered a liberal Justice. She seems to oppose any type of discrimination based on sexual orientation, and that would include marriage, in her view.
There are easily 5 votes for gay marriage on the Court.
Scalia, Thomas, Alito, and Roberts all voted to uphold DOMA, and they are the conservative Justices on the Court. But Roberts’ swing vote approving of Obamacare makes him a bit of a wild card. He might vote for gay marriage, capitulating to societal and cultural pressures. Supreme Court Justices do not decide cases solely based on the merits of the case. They are influenced by the culture in which they live.
So it looks like any same-sex marriage case before SCOTUS will play out as 5-4 or 6-3 — I think at this point in time, it’s 6-3.
Earlier, SCOTUS turned down gay marriage cases. Neither side, conservative or liberal, wants such a big decision to be made by the court unless they are sure of winning. So it was probably 4-1-4 at the time, For-undecided-Against. Now the court is taking 4 cases all at once, indicating that one side is very sure of winning, so it’s probably 6-3 For gay marriage.
What will happen next?
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