On any typical day, the death rate in the world is about 8 deaths per 1,000 persons [Wikipedia]. (This tally does not include prenatals in the womb.) For a total population of 7 billion, the number of deaths per year is about 56 million, or just over 153,000 deaths per day. The world death rate is a rough approximation.
The U.S. death rate, more precisely determined, is not so different. The CDC lists the death rate as 8.125 per 1000 persons. In 2013, just under 2.6 million persons died in the U.S. out of a population of 320 million. Those 2.6 million deaths per year work out to 7,123 deaths per day.
So if the day of the Warning (Good Friday of 2016) is like any typical day, in terms of deaths, then about 153,000 persons will die worldwide, including about 7,000 persons in the U.S.
But the day of the Warning is not like any other day. On that day, every human person will be shown the sins on his or her conscience. Some persons will die of shock at this sudden uncovering of their sins. Who will be most severely affected? Those who have the most unrepented sins. And the uncovering of these sins will be most shocking for those persons who have been lying to themselves, pretending to be good when in fact they are wicked, and those persons who have simply ignored morality and their own culpability. They will be confronted with the sins on their consciences. For every human person has a conscience, whether they make use of this faculty or not. The shock will cause some of them to die.
But will all those persons and only those persons with the greatest extent of unrepented sin be the ones to die? No, there are other factors at work. A person who is in a state of grace, but who has many unrepented venial sins, might die of shock at seeing these sins, if he or she is in a weakened state of health. This weakened state might be due to illness, or injury, or old age. A person who is young and healthy might survive the shock of seeing very many unrepented mortals sins uncovered by this illumination of conscience. So we cannot say that all who die are wicked, or were in a state of unrepented actual mortal sin.
On the other hand, those who will fare best on the day of the Warning are those Catholic Christians who regularly make a good confession. For the Warning does NOT show each person the sins of their entire life — that revelation is reserved for the particular judgment. The Warning only shows the person the sins still remaining on the conscience — unrepented sins. If you will have made a good confession every month in the year prior to the Warning, you will fare well on that day. If you are a Mass-going Catholic who does not go to confession, and who justifies all manner of mortal sins with various theological rationalizations, you will be hard struck on that day — and rightly so.
What percentage of persons will die of shock at seeing their sins on that day? If the number is one out of every million persons, only 320 persons would die on that day, in addition to the typical number of just over 7,000 deaths. The U.S. population is 320 million. One in a million seems too low a value, given the sinfulness of the current generation. If the number is one out of every thousand, then 320,000 persons would die on one day in the U.S. And a city of 650,000 persons would have 650 extra deaths on that day, in addition to the usual average of 14 or 15 deaths per day. Then the entire world would have 7 million deaths. But that value still seems too high to me.
If the value is one out of every 10,000 persons, then 32,000 extra deaths would occur in the U.S. on that day. A city of 650,000 would see about 65 extra deaths (80 total). A city of 100,000 would see only 10 extra deaths. The whole world would see 700,000 extra deaths. That value might be a little low, but it seems to me close to the right range. Even so, we cannot know in advance what the value will be.
In addition, some very sinful persons will react to the uncovering of their many unrepentant sins by committing suicide on that day. Now suicide is always a gravely immoral act; it is objectively always a mortal sin. And if it is committed in response to an illumination of conscience, it is much more likely to be also an actual mortal sin. Woe to those souls who commit suicide on the day of the Warning.
What percentage of persons will react in this way? In the U.S., on a typical day, an average of about 112 or 113 persons commit suicide (CDC 2013 data). But when everyone is shown the sins on their conscience, that number will be much higher. God will offer everyone sufficient graces at the time of the Warning, so that they can repent and convert in response to this uncovering of their sins. But many persons will reject the grace of repentance. I’m sure that the suicide rate will be much higher on that day (and the next few days). People who reject grace often fall into despair. But I don’t have a guess or estimate of the rate.
This topic is not often discussed: deaths as an indirect consequence of the Warning of Garabandal (the first secret of Medjugorje). It is a difficult subject, since we want everyone to repent, convert, and live a happy love-filled life. But we live in a sinful and largely unrepentant world. So we cannot discount the probability that many persons will die on the day of the Warning, a day that is designated by God for repentance from sin.
For more about the Warning and related events, see my book: The Secrets of Medjugorje and Garabandal.
Please take a look at this list of my books and booklets, and see if any topic interests you.