The next possible date for the Warning of Garabandal is Good Friday of 2017 (April 14th). If the Warning occurs at that time, how might it affect the conservative schism? What follows is my speculative eschatology on the topic.
The schism is already underway. Some Catholics have left the fold by accusing Pope Francis of teaching material heresy or committing formal heresy. Some have left the fold by their steadfast opposition to Pope Francis, as if he had no authority over them and over doctrine and discipline. Most of these schismatics do not realize that they have been automatically excommunicated under the eternal moral law for schism. They are also automatically excommunicated for heresy, because they reject the indefectibility of the Church, which indefectibility is based on the faithfulness of Peter and his successors. Each Pope has the gift of truth and of a never-failing faith.
The Warning is an event predicted in the apparitions at Garabandal. The event is an illumination of the conscience of everyone on earth. This event is NOT a mini-judgment, like the particular judgment. Each person is NOT shown all the good and bad that they have done in their lives. They are only shown the sins still remaining (unrepented) on their consciences.
Now this next point is important. If a person commits an objective sin (an act that is objectively immoral), with a sincere but mistaken conscience — something that happens frequently — the Warning does NOT show him that his act was a sin. It is an illumination of conscience only.
1. So those persons who have accused Pope Francis of heresy, or who have accused him otherwise, or who have departed from submission to his authority for any reason, if indeed they have done so with a sincere but mistaken conscience, they will NOT be shown this sin at the Warning. And some persons will wrongly conclude that, since they were not shown these acts in the illumination of conscience, that they must be in the right in accusing the Pope. Thus, the Warning does not prevent the schism.
2. In addition, some of the papal accusers are so filled with pride that they have sinned gravely in their condescending and contemptuous treatment of the Vicar of Christ. Having been shown this sin at the Warning, some will continue in their pride, refusing to repent. And then they will be all the more vehement in their rejection of the Vicar of Christ, just as the Pharisees, when corrected by Christ in person, became all the more malicious when they refused to repent.
These two types of persons will continue to oppose Pope Francis.
3. And they will draw toward themselves many of the weak and sinful in the Church, who will have been struck by fear and confusion at the Warning and the worldwide reaction to the Warning. People will be afraid, and the schismatics will offer a false version of Catholicism which is simpler and easier to understand and accept. Thus, a third type of person will join the other two.
Very many of the faithful will truly repent at the Warning, making the Church suddenly holier. But the Warning will not solve all problems in the Church.
At the time of the Warning, Pope Francis will teach on the subject of salvation theology. For the Warning was foreshadowed by the transfiguration of Jesus. Now, at the transfiguration, Jesus was seen talking to Elijah and Moses, representing Islam and Judaism. And Peter, in response, suggested setting up three place of worship, one for each. The eschatology meaning is that the Pope will suggest three places of worship in Jerusalem, for the three great monotheistic religions: Judaism, Christianity, Islam.
At that time, Pope Francis will teach that a non-Christian believer can be saved and go to Heaven, without converting to Christianity, and a non-believer, such as an atheist or agnostic, can be saved and go to Heaven, without converting to belief in God. And that teaching, which I believe is not only true, but implied by the teachings of Tradition, Scripture, Magisterium, will be rejected by many conservatives and traditionalists, leading to another wave of departures from the Church. They will accuse Pope Francis of heresy, and they will openly reject his authority over doctrine and discipline.
Well, the schism gets worse after that. And when finally Pope Francis is replaced by the next Pope, who will be very conservative, he will not please the schismatics; they will remain estranged from their Mother, the Church. Then his decisions on doctrine and discipline will enrage the liberals, and they will leave the Church next.
I’ve said much more about the schism in my books on eschatology, so the above is sufficient for now.
Please take a look at this list of my books and booklets, and see if any topic interests you.